27 Nov 2014



As expected, after breaking 1.2445 level rate went up to test the falling trendline and experienced a sharp drop. A break back below 1.2445 should take the rate down to test the yearly lows at 1.2357.

A break above the november range at 1.2575 would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair, as it would indicate the start of a bigger retracement towards 1.2750 and 1.2840 levels.


Better than expected data from the land down under last night helped aussie to recover grounds after making new 4-year lows on wednesday. The next 4H session will be essential for the pair as it is currently testing the old triangle support as the new resistance. A close above the resistance around 0.8600 would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair, however a strong rejection to the downside would signal that the rate is ready to take the next leg lower and head down to the triangle's breakout target at 0.8217.


In the overnight trading the rate went down to test the previous week's lows at 117.38 but failed to close below this level.

As both - the short term and medium term RSI momentum is still bearish, my immediate outlook for the pair is still more bearish, however a close below 117.38 is needed to trigger more serious retracement towards 117.00 and 116.00.

A failure to close below the support should take the rate back up to test this decades highs at 118.53 and 118.98


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