15 Dec 2014

COMMODITY UPDATE 15.12.14

GOLD H4

The gold price is currently trading in a range between two falling trendlines. I am still looking for higher prices, however, a break back below the lower trendline and old resistance levels at 1,210 would invalidate my immediate bullish bias.

A break above 1,239 is needed to confirm the next push higher with targets at 1,260 and 1,275.


SILVER H4

Silver has turned lower after testing the upper bound of a rising channel. I expect it to keep sliding lower to test the channel's support around 15.60.

For further declines silver needs to break 16.00, however a break above the 17.20 level would indicate a broader retracement towards 17.20 and 18.50 levels.


OIL H4

Oil keeps falling towards the 100% triangle breakout target at 52.40 - a level which could also act as a long term rising trendline support.

Although there is still some more room to fall, I would like to turn your attention to an indicator, which we don't talk about often - ADX.

ADX values above 70 indicate the trend is in an overextended condition and we need to anticipate some kind of consolidation or counter trend retracement.

I strongly advise everyone who's thinking about going short from these levels be very careful as the end of the year could bring us some short covering rally.

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