17 Dec 2014



After making a false breakout above 1.2500 yesterday the rate has fallen back a bit and is testing the short term rising trendline.

The bullish RSI momentum is already broken, so I am looking for the rate to continue lower.

A break below the trendline should take the rate down to test the previous support levels at 1.2418; 1.2372 and possibly the yearly low at 1.2247, however, a move back above 1.2500 should take the rate up to test the resistance at 1.2600 level. A break above this resistance is needed to trigger a bigger retracement towards 1.2750.


The rate tested the upper boundry of a long term fib confluence zone at 0.8145 and has bounced up a bit. It is still to early to tell if this is going to start a broader recovery.

For any serious upside moves the rate needs to break 0.8200 and 0.8360 level.

A move through the fib area and a close below 0.8100 should take the rate down to test the major psychological level at 0.8000 and the lower boudry of the massive falling channel.


After breaking the support at 117.40 the rate is now testing the level as the new resistance. If it stays below this level we could be seeing more downside from the pair. Possible downside targets are 115.56; 114.37.

A break back above 117.40 should take the rate up to 119.00 and possibly 120.00


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