9 Dec 2014



The rate has rebounded very close from the long term symmetrical triangle support. December is seasonally a good month for EUR, and as a lot of traders are liquidating their short positions before Christmas holliday time, I am inclined to believe it will continue up for the whole month.

To spark a broader recovery though, it EUR/USD still needs to break the falling trendline and previous resistance level at 1.2400. Next resistance levels are 1.2500 and 1.2575.

I would be very sceptical about any breaks below this week's range lows at 1.2247  this month as it would take a strong fundamental drive to break the massive support.


The RSI is currently testing the bearish momentum on 4H charts. The old support/new resistance at 0.8355 could prove to be a re-entry for short positions, however a break above this level and the short term falling trendline would invalidate my immediate bearish bias on the pair as the rate could be retracing higher to test the 0.8500 level.

A failure at 0.8355 should bring the rate back down to test the 4-year lows at 0.8224 and the long term fibonacci confluence zone at 0.8100-0.8150.


After a sharp drop in japanese stock market (Nikkei 225) all the yen pairs followed. If the ''risk off'' sentiment in the markets continue we can also expect more decline on USD/JPY.

The rate is currently testing the medium term rising trendline, however, a break below it and the old resistance/new support at 119.00 would trigger a broader retracement towards 117.37


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