2 Dec 2014



Once more the rate bounced down from a falling trendline resistance and is now testing the support at 1.2426.

A break below this level should take the rate down to test the yearly lows at 1.2357. An upside break above the trendline and this week's range at 1.2506 should make the rate rally up to November's range highs at 1.2575.

It is likely that the rate will keep ranging between these levels at least till thursday's ECB rate decision.


The rate is forming something of a descending triangle formation and as it has just bouced of the triangle resistance it is likely to go down to test the support at 1.5616. A break below this level is needed to trigger the continuation of the larger downtrend and could take the rate down to test the next support level at 1.5427.

A break above 1.5825 should trigger more serious retracement towards 1.6000, however only a daily close above this major psychological level would invalidiate my bearish outlook for the pair.


Following new 7-year high on Nikkei 225 the USD/JPY is putting a pressure to the highs at 119.00 level. A break above should take the rate up to test the major psychological level at 120.00 and the bull flag breakout target at 120.81.

A failure tu break out of this range should take the rate down to test the range lows at 117.37 and only a break below this level would invalidate my immediate bullish outlook for the pair.


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