21 Jan 2015

Majors update 21.01.2015

EUR/USD H4

The rate keeps trading in a small range as traders are waiting for the major risk event - the first ECB rate decision this year, when it is expected to come out with more information about the eurozone's QE programm.

A break below 1.1540 should take the rate down to test the yearly low at 1.1459, however, I don't advise anyone to take any new positions before tomorrows risk event.

A break above the week's range at 1.1638 may take the rate up to test the old support as the new resistance at 1.1750 - a level where traders will probably be looking to add to their short positions.

AUD/USD H4

The rate is trading in a rising channel which is a possible bear flag when looking at longer timeframes.

A break below the week's range at 0.8150 should take the rate down to test the channel support. A break below the major psychological support at 0.8000 is needed to confirm the resumption of the broader downtrend.

A break above the range resistance and medium term falling trendline at 0.8250 would indicate the rate may be starting a more serious retracement towards 0.8500 level.

The RSI could give us an indication about the direction of the next move, as it's stuck in a very tight consolidation pattern.


USD/JPY H4

As expected the rate has started the year trading in a consolidation triangle. My immediate bias is higher as long as the short term RSI momentum stays bullish and the short term rising trendline intact.

Possible resistance area is waiting at 118.80-119.30.

A break below 117.29 should take the rate down to test the triangle support around 116.00

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