28 Jan 2015

MAJORS UPDATE 28.01.2015


As traders are impatiently waiting for the Fed rate decision in an otherwise very quiet trading day, the rate has formed a consolidation pattern - rising wedge.

I wouldn't advise anyone to enter the market before the heavy risk event, however, we need to talk about possible technical levels in different scenarious.

A very decisive language from Fed with a certain date of the first rate hike most likely would trigger a downside break and we might see a test of the major psychological level at 1.1000.

A usual usage of the words ''patient'' or ''data dependant'' should also force the rate lower, however, it would first need to break the current multi-year low at 1.1097, to indicate the rate is ready to take the next leg lower.

A decisive language with postponing the first rate hike after June would be perceived very dovish and may start a broader retracement. A break above the old support/new resistance at 1.1520 level should take the rate up to test more serious resistance at 1.1750.


The rate is also trading in a range, however, the bullish divergence on H4 chart leaves me with no immediate bias.

A break above the 1.5250 level should take the rate up to test the most recent gap resistance at 1.5325 and the old major rising trendline support as the new resistance around 1.5400 level.

A strong close under the major psychological level at 1.5000 is needed to trigger the next leg lower towards the 2013 lows at 1.4830.


The rate is currently showing strong rejection from the major old support/new resistance level at 0.8000.

A hawkish Fed statement should take the rate down to test the multi year low at 0.7850 which also acts a huge falling channel support. A break lower would open up a way towards 0.7700 and 0.7500 levels.

A break back above the 0.8000 level should take the rate higher to test the falling trendline resistance at around 0.8100 level.


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