2 Feb 2015

CROSSES UPDATE 02.02.2015.


The rate has formed a bear flag formation on H4 chart. I am looking for a break outside this formation below 0.7480 and the bullish RSI momentum break before establishing any new short positions.

A daily close below 0.7400 is needed to confirm the rate is ready to resume it's downtrend as it's a level where a major channel support (dating back to 2010) is coming in play.

Only a break above the old support/new resistance at 0.7550 would invalidate my immediate bearish bias for the pair.


The rate is currently trading in a very tight range between this years uptrend line and last year's broken rising trendline and even the RSI momentum is unclear at the moment as traders are waiting for the RBA rate decision tomorrow.

A break below 1.0617 should take the rate down to test the multi-year low at 1.0353, however, a break above the last year's trendline and old support - now resistance at 1.0750 would indicate the rate may indeed have set an important bottom and is heading towards the major psychological resistance at 1.1000 and last year's high at 1.1300.

I would not advise anyone to enter before the major risk event though, as the meeting could provide  a clear direction for at least the first half of the year.


The rate has formed a descending triangle formation on the H4 chart. The triangle's support also acts as the 61.8% target from the head and shoulders pattern earlier this year. A break below this level at 176.00 most likely would take the rate down towards the 100% breakout target at 172.70 and possibly even lower to test the last year's rising trendline around 171.40.

Only a break above the current range at 181.20 would invalidate my immediate bearish bias for the pair.


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