17 Mar 2015

MAJORS UPDATE 17.03.2015

EUR/USD H4

The rate is consolidating before the wednesday's major risk event - FOMC rate decision. The rate has formed something of an inverse head and shoulders formation on H4 chart. A break of the neckline above 1.0620 should take the rate up for the 100% break-out target and old minor support becoming new resistance at 1.0800 - 1.0825.

Any upside moves (even dovish Yellen tomorrow), however, should be capped by the major psychological level at 1.1000. Only a daily close above this level would invalidate my immediate and medium term bearish bias for the pair.

A failure at this short term neckline should take the rate loer to test the year-to-date low at 1.0457.
Removal of the ''patiently'' from tomorrow's statement most likely would open up a way down to parity in the rest of the month.



GBP/USD H4

After the huge drop last week, the rate started monday with digesting the losses and retracing higher where it met a strong reaction at the old support/now resistance at 1.4850.

The recent price action suggests the rate is heading down to test the yearly low at 1.4700, however, the next noteworthy support is sitting way lower at 1.4220.

A break above the former support at 1.4850 should take the rate up to test the major psychological resistance and old support as the new resistance at 1.5000 and only a daily close above this level would invalidate my immediate and medium term bearish bias for the pair.


USD/JPY H4

With BOJ rate decision being a non-event - the exchange rate is still trading in a super-tight range as the traders are waiting for this week's main event tomorrow.

Even a break from this smaller range wouldn't do much before the rate is still trading between 120.60 on the downside and 122.00 on the upside.

My medium and long term bias is still higher for the pair and only a close below 118.00 level would invalidate my over all bullish outlook for the pair.

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