26 Mar 2015

MAJORS UPDATE 26.03.2015


The rate is trading in a tight range at the moment and neither worse than expected inflation data nor way better retail sales figures helped it to breakout indicating the next direction the rate is going to continue.

An upside break and close above the major psychological 1.5000 level coupled with further US dollar weakness over the board will be taken as a bullish sign and should take the rate up to at least 1.5250 to test the falling trendline resistance.

A break below 1.4830 would probably send the rate back down to the yearly lows at 1.4640.


Overnight the rate made a downside break below the last week's FOMC low  at 119.28 which should now act as the new resistance.

A downside break below 118.30 should take the rate down to 117.00 and possibly further down to test the upwards sloping support around 116.20

Only a daily close above 122.00 would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair as it would indicate a continuation of a broader uptrend.


The rate continues to fall to test the 1.2350 level. A break below would confirm a possible double top scenario and would open up a way for the downside targets at 1.1900 (the double top's 100% breakout target) and 1.1300 (possible rising trendline support and polarity change as the old resistance becomes the new support), however, a lot of it depends on the current geopolitical situation in Yemen as the military operations threatens with Oil supply disruption, therefore, driving the oil prices up.

Only a break above 128.00 would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair as it would trigger the bull flag scenario and confirm a continuation of a broader uptrend.


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