23 Apr 2015



Rate broke to the upside from the descending triangle formation which had formed at the longer term rising trendline so we should be looking at the recent formation as a falling wedge, therefore, the recent breakout acts as an indication the rate is heading back up to the massive range resistance area between 2.0800 and 2.1000.

I have already taken a small long position, however, to scale in full position I need two possible scenarious:
  1. The rate pulls back and offers better entry price (therefore better risk/reward).
  2. The rate breaks above 2.0000 and tests it as the new support so that I could set my stops against this level.
Only a daily close below 1.9250 would invalidate my immediate and medium term bullish outlook for the pair.


The New Zealand dollar weakness is showing all over the board. EUR/NZD is showing signs of a recovery as well, however, to confirm the rate is indeed going to trade higher we first need to see a close above the former support/ now resistance at 1.4260 and a breakout of the falling wedge formation.

The divergence on daily RSI also hints at underlying strength.

An upside break may take the rate up to test the major support turned resistance at 1.4800. 

A daily close below 1.4000 would invalidate my immediate bullish outlook for the pair.


The rate keeps making lower lows and lower highs after the downside break of the double top formation. The rate is now testing the last week's support now turned resistance at 0.7160 and with  a failure here should the target should still be the 100% breakout target at 0.7060.

A break above the short term trendline and the former neckline at 0.7220 would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair, however, only a daily close above 0.7400 would invalidate my overall bearish bias.


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