21 Apr 2015

MAJORS UPDATE 21.04.2015


The rate seems to be stuck in a larger consolidation pattern. It is too early to tell if the triangle formation is valid, as we need one more infliction point to confirm support. If my analysis is right - after breaking the level of interest for the past month, rate seems to be heading down to around 1.0550 to test the triangle support.

Upside moves should now be capped by the same level of interest - now resistance at 1.0710. An upside break above this level should take the rate up to test the previous week's high at 1.0840 and the triangle resistance around 1.0960.

A break below 1.0530 would be a good indication the rate is ready to resume the downtrend.

A daily close above 1.1000 level would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair and would probably mean the rate is going into a deeper retracement mode during the summer months.


After breaking the major consolidation range since the start of the year last week, rate has started this week by retracing some of the losses. It is currently now struggling to overcome a minor support on Friday - new resistance at 1.2260 and looks like it is going to continue lower.

Possible downside targets are 1.2100 and 1.1940.

A break above the current resistance level at 1.2260 would not help the rate a lot as there's the former range floor becoming the new resistance at 1.2350.

Only a daily close above 1.2650 would invalidate my immediate and medium term bearish outlook for the pair.


After a false break above the 1.5000 level on Friday the rate seems to be struggling lower. Looking at the broader technical picture it seems it may be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder around 1.4850 and a neckline at 1.5000. A daily close above this level is needed to establish any new long positions.



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