27 May 2015

CROSSES UPDATE 27.05.2015

AUD/JPY H4

After making a false downside break last week, the rate is now contracting in a triangle formation. As I already mentioned last week, the recent declining price action suggests no momentum behind it, therefore, it should be looked at only as a retracement lower in an uptrend.

A break above 95.80 would trigger an inverse head and shoulders scenario and should take the rate up to test the previous highs around 97.00.

A break below the last week's lows at 94.90 would invalidate my immediate bullish outlook for the pair.

EUR/GBP H4

The rate has formed a falling wedge pattern which has come very close to a breakout. A small divergence on H4 RSI also suggests the recent downside price action has no momentum behind it. In case of an upside break the rate may head up to test the former support areas as the new resistance. First level to look at would be 0.7140 - the most recent broken lows. If this level fails - it may open up a way to 0.7250 (old rising channel support).

A break below 0.7060 and outside of the wedge would invalidate my immediate bullish outlook for the pair and could take the rate down to test the major psychological support at 0.7000.

GBP/JPY H4

Very similar to USD/JPY last week - guppy is now sitting just below the major resistance at 190.00. As the USD/JPY has already made an upside break, I am waiting for a break here as well.

A daily close above 190.00 should take the rate up to test 197.00 and possibly 200.00 levels.

A break below 187.90 would invalidate my immediate bullish outlook for the pair as it would trigger a double top scenario, however, only a break below 185.50 would turn my overall bias to bearish.

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