28 May 2015

COMMODITY UPDATE 28.05.2015

XAU/USD H4

Gold is currently testing the 3 month uptrend line. A break below 1,183 would trigger a bear flag scenario and the price should target 1,169 - a level which also coincides with the the previous test of the trendline back in start of the May.

A break above 1,190 would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair and if coupled with a bearish momentum break on the H4 RSI, would indicate the price is ready to resume it's uptrend and is heading up to test the highs around 1,230.

USOil H4

After breaking a neckline of what appears to be a head and shoulders pattern the price is now consolidating just below the broken support.

The break indicates the price may be heading down to test the major 55.00 level which is also the 38.2% retracement from the highs back in start of the May.

A break below the 55.00 would invalidate my overall bullish outlook on the Oil and would indicate a move back towards the decades lows around 44.00

Only a break above 61.00 would invalidate my immediate bearish outlook for the pair and would indicate a resumption of the downtrend.

XAU/USD DAILY

The silver price seems to be stuck in a  large consolidation triangle. As the daily RSI continues trading with bullish momentum I am looking for a bounce back towards the upper triangle boundary around 17.50.

Only a strong daily close below 16.00 would turn me bearish.

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