18 Nov 2016



The rate is currently testing the 2-year-long symmetrical triangle's lower boundary. As I have stated before - in the long term I am looking for a push lower towards the parity, and at least 0.9500 level.
(watch the video on this trade idea here)

This test comes after the Fed chair - Janet Yellen reinforced the market's assumptions about a steeper interest rate hike pace.


The daily chart shows we had a quick bounce higher right after the slightest touch of the triangle's support and we now have to wait and see how is it going to treat the former broken falling channel support around 1.0670. It is possible we'll have a very short and narrow consolidation period before the market's next try to push the rate beneath the significant triangle support.

I would, however, prefer a more deeper and longer retracement/bounce higher  towards another broken support/new resistance (the gray line) around 1.0800 as we still have 3 week's till the Fed's last 2016 rate decision which should not only to give the expected rate hike, but also updated rate hike projections for the 2017.

With that said, I will still be open to short a smaller position in case if we see a downside break before the meeting, so at the moment it's a waiting game.

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